The prediction market
for clinical trials
ProgramSignal is where investors and biotech professionals form and track their views on clinical trial outcomes — publicly, with accountability.
What We Are
ProgramSignal is a prediction platform built specifically for clinical stage biotech assets. Users submit predictions on key trial endpoints — hazard ratios, response rates, binary hit/miss outcomes — before data readouts arrive.
Predictions are public, linked to your display name, and scored for accuracy when trial data is published. Over time, a user's prediction history becomes a verifiable track record of their analytical judgment.
The platform also provides investor-grade commentary on active programs, analyst-level context on individual trials, and a clean interface into ClinicalTrials.gov data — so you can find the trial, understand the stakes, and form a view in one place.
Why Predictions Are Public
Anonymous prediction markets tell you what "the crowd" thinks. Public prediction markets tell you what specific, identifiable people think — and let you weight their views by their track record.
When a KOL with 20 resolved predictions and 84th percentile accuracy says the hazard ratio will be 0.68, that means something different than an anonymous entry. ProgramSignal is built on that distinction.
All predictions and votes are permanently linked to your display name. There is no anonymous posting on ProgramSignal.
How Scoring Works
When an endpoint resolves — a press release drops, results are posted to ClinicalTrials.gov, or a paper is published — ProgramSignal records the actual outcome and scores every prediction against it.
Numeric endpoints
Scored by proximity. The closer your prediction to the actual value, the higher your score. Maximum 100 base points, multiplied by conviction.
Binary endpoints
Correct calls earn full points. Wrong calls incur a penalty. High conviction amplifies both — it rewards insight and penalises overconfidence.
Conviction weighting
Low conviction = 1× points. Medium = 2×. High = 3×. Sticking your neck out and being right is rewarded. Being confidently wrong costs more.
Accuracy score
Your profile shows a percentile accuracy score across all resolved predictions. This is your verifiable analytical track record.
Status tiers — Observer, Contributor, Analyst, Senior Analyst, KOL — reflect a combination of prediction volume and accuracy over time.
Status Tiers
Data Sources
Trial data is sourced from ClinicalTrials.gov via their public API. ProgramSignal does not independently generate or verify clinical data — results reflect what sponsors and investigators have reported to the U.S. National Library of Medicine.
Analyst commentary is generated with AI assistance and reviewed by the ProgramSignal team before publication. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Important Disclaimer
ProgramSignal is an informational platform. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Predictions represent the personal views of individual users and do not reflect the views of ProgramSignal or its operators. Past prediction accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
Ready to form your view?